From The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity by Toby Ord:

Growing up, I had always been strongly pro-technology. If not for the plausibility of these unconsummated catastrophic risks, I’d remain so. But instead, I am compelled towards a much more ambivalent view. I don’t for a moment think we should cease technological progress—indeed, if some well-meaning regime locked in a permanent freeze on technology, that would probably itself be an existential catastrophe, preventing humanity from ever fulfilling its potential.

But we do need to treat technological progress with maturity. We should continue our technological developments to make sure we receive the fruits of technology. Yet we must do so very carefully, and if needed, use a significant fraction of the gains from technology to address the potential dangers, ensuring that the balance stays positive. Looking ahead and charting the potential hazards on our horizon is a key step.

This is oddly one of the things I find hardest to accept about existential risk. From a purely selfish point of view, I care much less about parting with my resources than about the idea that I might get to see less of the future.

Imagine if well-managed general AI ushers in an era of wild progress: space elevators, life extension, world peace, the whole shebang. But - since we managed it well, it takes another 50 years to arrive and our generation is all dead by that point. That hurts. There’s a part of me that wants to rush and throw the dice just so I might get to see all that.

But this is right and good. The whole point is to make sacrifices now to benefit others or the future. We should expect some of those sacrifices to hurt!¹ Let us not be fair-weather altruists.

So I agree with Ord: we should slow down development of dangerous technologies where it allows us to make them safer. And where it doesn’t currently help (e.g. because of competition between unscrupulous parties) that is a problem which we should try and solve (e.g. through international cooperation on regulation).

I read this post by my friend Lulie, and while I have not idea whether this relates to actual Alexander Technique it was interesting.

Expanded awareness

I tried doing the expanded awareness thing for most of a day, including a fairly long walk. I do think this actually helped my posture: I noticed that if I was even peripherally aware of the whole of my body, I would do a lot of mostly-subconscious “fixing” of posture issues. This is particularly interesting since, despite not really thinking about it, I did end up doing a lot of things that I have been previously taught consciously to do. For example, rotating my hips forward to keep my spine straighter, which is something that I’ve always found somewhat unnatural, so it was surprising to find myself doing it automatically.

However, I don’t know how this will go when I’m doing more focussed activity (like programming) or in a position where it’s harder to have good posture. But it seems quite promising so I’m going to try and do it more.

Non-doing

I have mixed feelings about the “non-doing” idea. I do think I know what this means: often if I need to do something I really don’t want to do, I eventually manage it by “sneaking up” on myself. This feels like a semi-autonomous part of myself picking up the action and performing it, and is often associated with a feeling of letting go or suspension of my judgement about why I don’t like the thing.

Sounds good, right? But I’m not sure I actually like this way of acting. Contra the post, it doesn’t really feel harmonious, but more like doing something with my eyes closed because I don’t want to look at it, especially since it usually happens when my conscious mind is freaking out about something. Surely It would be better to do it with my eyes open!

Even worse, I feel… dangerously cool when I act like that. I think that’s how I would feel if I had to fight for my life, or something similarly drastic. I’m not sure I want to feel like that all the time, and I’ve often associated this part of myself with the “lizard brain” since it seems to be “under” the rest and very dispassionate.

All that said, I think it’s also true that we use this mode of action a lot in normal life (like fiddling with stuff), so I’m probably overly focussing on emotionally salient examples. I’m at least going to try it a bit more and see how it goes.

I’m going to try and write a bit more, blatantly stealing the idea from David MacIver’s Notebook. The main idea is just to have a blog – or in my case, a section of my blog – dedicated to low-effort just-get-something-out writing.

After all, quantity frequently beats quality in terms of building skill:

The ceramics teacher announced on opening day that he was dividing the class into two groups. All those on the left side of the studio, he said, would be graded solely on the quantity of work they produced, all those on the right solely on its quality. His procedure was simple: on the final day of class he would bring in his bathroom scales and weigh the work of the “quantity” group: fifty pound of pots rated an “A”, forty pounds a “B”, and so on. Those being graded on “quality”, however, needed to produce only one pot - albeit a perfect one - to get an “A”.

Well, came grading time and a curious fact emerged: the works of highest quality were all produced by the group being graded for quantity. It seems that while the “quantity” group was busily churning out piles of work - and learning from their mistakes - the “quality” group had sat theorizing about perfection, and in the end had little more to show for their efforts than grandiose theories and a pile of dead clay.

Almost certainly apocryphal, but I think the maxim is correct in some cases.

All these posts will be tagged with ‘notebook’ to distinguish them from my (non-existent) main blog output.

I’m also maybe going to try another of David’s writing tips, which is to take random prompts from a book, but we’ll see how that goes.

I haven’t been doing terribly well at my Giving What We Can pledge recently. This was largely for tactical reasons: for the last couple of years I’ve been getting paid via a limited company and the associated novel accountancy requirements made me a bit leery of giving away large chunks of money I might actually have to give to the government. Anyway, I’ve corrected that now: I gave £50k to the Effective Altruism Funds, split between the Animal Welfare and Long Term Future funds.

A couple of things have changed since last time I gave some money, which I thought I should write down.

(This post seems almost too obvious to write, but I couldn’t find any other instances of people talking about this kind of pattern, or any libraries. Pointers welcome!)

If you’ve written code in Java, Python, or some other language with ubiquitous exceptions, then you are probably familiar with stack traces. Stack traces are great for a developer because they give you more contextual information about where in your code an error occurred, and often this can be enough to help you pin down the bug.

But what about in Haskell?